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Tuesday 12 July 2016

Forex - Yen gains in Asia with monetary policy eyed, China trade ahead

Investing.com - The yen gained in Asia on Wednesday, reversing earlier direction with eyes on monetary policy and the Aussie eased after a downbeat consumer survey and with China trade data possible later in the day.
USD/JPY changed hands at 104.63, down 0.06%, while AUD/USD traded at 0.7611, down 0.16%. GBP/USD was up 0.31% to 1.3287 with Theresa May set to take over as Britain's newest prime minister.
In Australia the Westpac consumer sentiment index for July fell 3.0% compared with the last reading down 1.0%.
China is expected to report trade data with a surplus balance of $46.64 billion seen, withimports down 4.1% in June year-on-year and exports down 5.0%.
The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the strength of the greenback versus a basket of six other major currencies, was last quoted down 0.03% to 96.53.
Overnight, USD/JPY surged on Tuesday completing a massive two-day rally, upon confirmation that former Federal Reserve chair Ben Bernanke met with Japan prime minister Shinzo Abe to discuss ways to help one of the world's top economies avoid deflation.
The currency pair soared in Tuesday's session, reaching two-week highs of 104.98, before inching down to 104.75 at the close of U.S. afternoon trading, up 1.89% on the day. Since Abe's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) triumphed in a landslide upper house election over the weekend, the U.S. Dollar has soared more than 4% against the Yen, nearly returning to pre-Brexit levels from late last month. The yen is still up considerably against its American counterpart over the last month, as investors have piled into the safe-haven currency to hedge against extreme volatility in global financial markets.
Foreign exchange traders remained focus on economic developments in Tokyo on Tuesday, where Bernanke met with Abe for approximately 30 minutes at the Japanese prime minister's office, according to multiple reports. The discussions followed lengthy speculation that the former head of the U.S. central bank had plans to craft a strategy for bringing "helicopter money," to Japan in a last-ditched effort to help stave off deflation nationwide. The concept of helicopter involves large scale printing of money by a central bank that is distributed to the public as a way for helping stimulate the economy. Koichi Hamada, one of Abe's top advisors, told the Wall Street Journal that prospects for including helicopter money as part of a large-scale easing initiative may have been discussed at the meeting.
Bernanke left the meeting without speaking to reporters.
"Mr. Bernanke said Japan should boost nominal gross domestic product with fiscal policy and, in coordination with that use monetary policy since the BoJ has various means available to ease policy," a Japan government spokesman told reporters outside the meeting.
Following the LDP's resounding victory, Abe outlined a ¥10 Trillion ($98 billion) stimulus measure aimed at jumpstarting the economy, including a proposal to fast-track construction on a series of high-speed trains throughout the nation. At the same time, Abe's cabinet projected lowered its full year consumer inflation outlook to 0.4% for the fiscal year ending next year, down from previous estimates of 1.2%, Japanese government sources told Reuters. The Japanese prime ministers appears ready to utilize all "three arrows" of his comprehensive Abenomics' economic plan to help defeat inflation. The plan consists mainly of easing, stimulus and structural reforms.
Elsewhere, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis president James Bullard reiterated his position that current economic conditions deem it appropriate for the U.S. central bank to raise short-term rates only once over the next two years. While delivering a speech in St. Louis, Bullard noted that a flattening yield curve from plummeting long-term U.S. Treasury yields does not necessarily imply signals of an imminent recession. In the wake of last month's Brexit decision, government bond yields worldwide, including those on U.S. 10-Year and U.S. 30-Year Treasuries have plunged to all-time record lows.

Monday 5 October 2015

Oil prediction Turning Bearish

Oil major trend analysis

USDX really bouncing on a monthly EMA and rise up to the current price, now the price is consolidating diarea weekly EMA and predicted ready to continue the bullish trend. trend is a trend that occurred in a span of a monthly with a monthly EMA as the indicator, while the monthly EMA is in bullish condition so that the majority of buyers bulananlah fill the current price trend. If prices really go up then the oil would fall further due to the influence of the USD are getting stronger, as the unit price of oil, and also the comparison most of the instruments other markets, the USD also affects the motion of market instruments other so many factors that menyenbapkan oil gets weaker as USD strengthens ,
Projection direction of movement of oil prices is only taking into account the position of USDX and certain technical indicators, but it is still possible to surprise a different direction if the other fundamental conditions change significantly.



Oil minor trend analysis

All sell signal on the previous analysis has been executed so that the two sell have been open and it's time to look for new opportunities for predictive USDX sell can still be strengthened. Now prices are in SD1 (46.30) the second sell signal on the previous analsia and predicted prices will bounce at the level of the so prices will membaut a reversal. If the price managed to bounce it will form a reference level two new SD-1 (45.63) which will be confirmed sell on the analysis of this time, the sell can be opened at this level and continued to sell the second one is at the level of the balance of 46.06 if the price had bounced from level confirmation and return to that level. Target dihold with SL plus strategy in order to benefit from the strengthening of USD on a monthly basis can be obtained. While the stop loss corresponding to the target is the level of 46.90.
Recommendations sell when price touches the SD-1 (45.63) and the equilibrium level of 46.06 with a stop loss at 46.90 and take profit levels dihold with SL plus strategy.



Archive Analysis by: Abu Hasan

6 to 7 October 2015: RBA Interest Rate, US Trade Draghi Speech

Tuesday, October 6, 2015:
The second day of the Eurogroup meeting

At 07:30 pm: Australia's trade balance data in August 2015 (High Impact on AUD)
Data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics measures the total difference in the value of imports and exports within the time period of one month. If the total value of exports is greater than the total value of imports, the trade balance had a surplus, and vice versa if the total value of imports greater than exports, the trade deficit.

Since April 2014 the Australian trade deficit continued and reached a record high of A $ 4:14 billion in April 2015. In July and returned a deficit of AUD 2:46 billion, higher than expected deficit will be 3:10 billion AUD and is the lowest deficit in 4 months last as exports increased and imports remained relatively unchanged. For the month of August 2015 is expected Australia's trade deficit will shrink back of AUD 2:36 billion. Deficit figure lower than estimates will tend to cause the AUD to strengthen.

10:30 pm: meeting the results of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA): interest rate announcement in October 2015 and the RBA statement (High Impact on AUD)
RBA interest rate is announced every month on the first Tuesday, except in January. In February 2015 for the first time the RBA cut interest rates since August 7, 2013 to + 0.25% of 2.25%, then in May made more cuts of 0.25% to + 2:00%. This reference rate is a record low RBA.

Governor Glenn Stevens stated that further interest rate cuts are still possible, but some analysts estimate for October is the benchmark rate will remain + 2:00% even though the Chinese economy as the main trading partner of Australia is experiencing a slowdown. If the RBA cut its benchmark rate back then the AUD will tend to weaken, and vice versa.
Statement for today's meeting can be downloaded here.

13:00 pm: Factory Orders Germany in August 2015 (Impact medium in EUR)
This indicator released each month and measures the percentage change in the volume of purchases of manufactured products and industrial Germany compared to the previous month. This data is an early indicator for German production output which will affect growth. Last July the German Factory Orders fell 1.4% (or -1.4%), lower than the estimates will be down 0.5% and is the lowest in the last 6 months. For the month of August 2015 is expected to be back in Factory Orders rose 0.5%. Results of the release of higher than expected will tend to support the strengthening of the EUR.

Hours 14:15 pm: Data Consumer Price Index (CPI) in September 2015 Switzerland (medium-high Impact in CHF)
CPI is the main indicator to measure the level of inflation in Switzerland, and because the Swiss economy is not as big countries other major currencies, the data released is the CPI total (including the consumption of food and fuel) and no category of core CPI (Core CPI) like most other countries. Euro area together with its neighbors, is now deflation is sweeping Switzerland. CPI data release in the form of changes compared to the previous month (m / m) and compared to the same month in the previous year (y / y). High-impact annual inflation is data or a total CPI y / y.

Last August the Swiss annual inflation back down 1.4% (or -1.4%), in line with forecasts and the lowest in the last 56 years, while a monthly basis (m / m) total CPI fell 0.2% (or -0.2%), according with estimates and higher than in July were -0.6% (the lowest since 2007). For the month of September 2015 is estimated to total CPI y / y will come back down 1.4% (or -1.4%) while for m / m will rise 0.1%. Results of the release of higher than expected will tend to cause a stronger CHF.

Hours 19:30 am: US trade balance data in August 2015 (medium-high Impact on the USD)
The trade balance is the largest component in the balance of payments which the US government will have a direct impact on the exchange rate USD. A weaker USD as a result of the trade balance deficit is usually compared also with incoming capital (capital inflow) through the US Net Foreign Security Purchases or Treasury International Capital (TIC) Purchases were also released each month.

                   

The US trade deficit in July shrank to a value of USD 41.86 billion, better than expected to be a deficit of USD 43.20 billion and was the lowest deficit since March this year. The shrinking of the deficit figure is due to the exports rose 0.4% while imports fell 1.1%. For the month of August 2015 the US trade deficit is expected to be returned to the figures swelled to USD 42.20 billion. Deficit lower than expected will tend to cause the USD strengthened.

Hours 19:30 pm: Canadian trade balance data in August 2015 (High Impact at CAD)
This data is also called the International Merchandise Trade, and only releasing products that are imported and exported goods, excluding services. Canada is a major exporter of crude oil in addition to gold and automobile parts. Canada's main trading partner is the US which accounted for nearly 70% of total exports and 50% of the total imports of Canada, so the development of the US economy will greatly influence the trading activity in Canada.

Canada last July trade deficit of CAD 0.6 billion, better than expected to be a deficit of CAD 1.4 billion and was the lowest deficit since November 2014. The shrinking of the deficit in July was caused by exports which rose 2.3% while imports rose 1.7%. For the month of August 2015 the trade deficit is expected to shrink Canada will return to the number of CAD 0.3 billion. Deficit figure lower than estimates will tend to cause a stronger CAD.

21:00 pm: Ivey PMI index in September 2015 Canada (Impact medium in CAD)
Indicators are also called the Canada Business Confidence is the same as the Manufacturing PMI index released by Markit, only to Canada were made and released by the Richard Ivey School of Business. This index is based on results of a survey of 175 purchasing managers across Canada about the economic situation and current business until it was shown the future economic outlook. Therefore, these indicators are important to investors and businesses and are often regarded as a leading indicator. Figures released above 50.0 indicates industry expansion, and below the 50.0 figure indicates contraction.

Last August Canada Ivey index stood at 58.0, higher than expected 53.5 and the highest in the last 3 months. For the month of September 2015 the market does not provide estimates, but if the result of the release of higher than the index of the previous month (58.0), then it will tend to favor the strengthening of the CAD.

Wednesday, October 7, 2015:
Time tentative: the price index Global Dairy Trade (GDT) (High-impact on the NZD)
Data released by the Global Dairy Trade shows average prices of dairy products from the last auction. The price index released 2 times a month and usually a high impact on the NZD considering New Zealand is one of the countries producing milk and dairy products the world's major. Milk is the mainstay of New Zealand's exports of products in addition to meat, fruits, wool and wood. To release today the market does not provide an estimate, but if the result is higher than the previous release which rose 16.5% (highest in the last 6 months), the NZD is likely to be strengthened.
Results GDT index release can be found here.

At 00:00 pm: speech the president of the European Central Bank (ECB) Mario Draghi (High Impact in EUR)
Mario Draghi is scheduled to speak about the prospects for the Eurozone economy in Frankfurt, Germany.

Hours 04:30 pm: speech FOMC members John Williams (medium Impact on the USD)
President of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco John Williams is scheduled to talk about the prospects for the US economy at the Urban Land Institute's Fall Meeting, San Francisco.



Archive Analysis by: Martin

Non-Manufacturing Sector Slump, Yen slumped Participate

A survey conducted by the Institute for Supply Management, based in Arizona avoid economists' forecasts. After two consecutive months in the doldrums, the sector in the month of September also did not immediately show his passion even actually even worse. Pegged at 58.0 by the experts, it has not been able to meet the expectations of the manager of expenditure so that the facts must be corrected deeper level to 56.9 basis points.

us non-manufacturing september 2015

There is still hope

Almost the entire sub-sector of the manufacturing sector outside the US showed unsatisfactory results. Even so indicative of the persistence of the expansion remains visible. With a ceiling of 50.0, the index survey acquired in September is at least still show the picture that the domestic economy is still strong enough to spin. As has been understandable if the non-manufacturing sector is more engaged in industrial activity in the country. Of the total, which is the most sub-sectors showed optimime dropping amid this passion? From the results of this responsiveness, managers in the health services and information industries who appear with more confidence than managers in other service industries.

Seeing the optimism, will it be enough capital to raise the drop in the performance of this industry in the coming months? The possibility of just going to stay there. If seen from the results of last week's NFP (although not so encouraging as well), investor sentiment was still showing signs that the slowdown in the business climate in the third quarter of this seems to be only temporary.

Trailing Yen

Market sentiment that occurred during days ago still has not changed. Yen still dare to fight at certain moments. But it seems the whole day not so sharply honed samurai that with just a little blow, Greenback managed to blunt the guts. Opened with a level footing 119.98, the yen continued to terkerek jump over the psychological ceiling of 120. Practically it has dropped the Yen as much as 0:40 per cent to date this review uploaded. What about the next session? Are rumors of monetary policy easing by the BoJ would be quite annoying condition that has happened tonight?


Media.net Team
W: http://www.media.net

NFP to falling impact resistance Suspended For NZD Channel Up

New Zealand currency movements taking advantage of the weakening of the Non-Farm Payrolls Data US increase market concerns about the delay in a rate hike in October. Data released the Non-Farm Payrolls fell 142,000 of the estimated 201,000. Coupled with the data the US Average Hourly Earnings decreased to a level of 0.0 percent of the estimated 0.2 per cent. Both of these data showed the unstable recovery of the US labor sector, although the Unemployment Rate at 5.1 percent the lowest level.

NZD / USD

On the hourly chart (H1) Meta Trader, movement of the NZD / USD formed a Channel Up pattern. Now the movement of the NZD / USD near resistance Channel Up. In the short term traders can take advantage of a reversal NZD / USD by Short Selling in the level of 0.64650, with a target profit in the level of 0.64450 - 0.63900. As restrictions on risk, the seller can cut and switch in case of penetration resistance Channel Up. Buy Stop orders can be placed at the 0.64800 level is hoping NZD / USD extend gains towards the 0.6500 - 0.65400.

Note ISM US Non-Manufacturing PMI will be released tonight at 21:00 pm with estimates fell to 58.0 from the previous 59.0. If the data released worse than expected, will have a negative impact on the US Dollar.

Archive Analysis by: Business Futures
Analysis Presented By BISNISBERJANGKA.COM

EUR / JPY October 5th, 2015

EUR / JPY closed up to the price of 134.22 on Friday, rose 10 pips from the opening price of 134.22. Although the price had dropped to 133.98, but was able to ascend to the highest at 134.87 price that may result from the NFP news. Technically on the daily timeframe has not been able to see price hit a Fibonacci level 0 or 100 means fibo can still be reused for today. The state of the moving average indicator still indicates a trend down while the stochastic oscillator is also experiencing the intersection to go up to the overbought area which indicates the market will soon rise.

EURJPY Daily

While the timeframe H4 seen also that the state of the red moving average (MA 4) cut green moving average (MA 50), where it indicates the price rise. 134.46 price level has happened to break out and made fibo to gauge the direction of the market with a target price on the Fib 130, 161 and 261.

EURJPY H4

For even smaller timeframe, ie on H1 timeframe or hourly seen prices rise since last Friday. The moving average indicator 4 (red) and moving average 13 (blue) has undergone a moving average crossover green from the bottom to the top which indicates prices rise.

EURJPY H1


Archive Analysis by: Moch Iksan

Analysis Rupiah 5 to 9 October 2015

Recap Rupiah Two Weeks (21 September-2 October 2015)
After this analysis of the last series was released, Rupiah again depressed, even briefly touching 14.784 per US dollar on September 29. The development of depreciation of the currency of the Republic of Indonesia is already very far beyond its fundamental basis, making it difficult to estimate again, until when these conditions will last.

Indonesian government and Bank Indonesia has launched two new stimulus plan with a focus on boosting industrial competitiveness through deregulation, accelerate the strategic programs, and sustain the rupiah exchange rate. But until a few days after the release of the second stimulus package, the market has not been responding. On the one hand, the policies are not expected to have a big impact in the near future to support the rupiah. While on the other hand, the market is looking forward to the execution of these policies.

Meanwhile, concerns about the impact of the depreciation of the rupiah against foreign corporate debt continues to mount. In mid-September, S & P said that the Indonesian companies would have trouble repaying foreign debts them if touched 15,000 rupiah per US dollar due to high foreign currency exposure on a non-hedging. Last night, the same concerns reviewed by the Financial Times international business media. Quoting economist of Deutsche Bank Research and Moody's, the Financial Times revealed the high private sector debt that will mature in the short term and the lack of hedging makes some companies, especially developers, it becomes vulnerable.

Rupiah 'comeback' at the end of last week and opened slightly higher at 14.640 per US dollar this morning (5/10) after the release of US economic reports disappointed the market. The report shows the increase of labor US non-farm sector which plummeted and stagnant wage growth, whereas employment data was one consideration US central bank, the Fed, in a plan to raise its interest rates. Earlier, the Fed officials said that there is a possibility they will raise interest rates in October or December, as employment conditions in the country are expected to improve. With worsening employment data, the market lost hope. Meanwhile, two other factors were also observed: inflation and international economic conditions, they have not shown significant improvement.

These recent developments are worth noting, but has not changed the fundamental background behind the weakening of the rupiah today, including:

The possibility of the Fed interest rate will be raised this year, between October or December.
Asian market conditions and developing countries today are still unfavorable, especially due to the economic slowdown in China.
The low price of commodities in the international market today, while Indonesia relied on exports of raw materials.
Bank Indonesia has a very narrow space to act in the middle of the dilemma of national economic slowdown and the depreciation of the rupiah and foreign exchange inventories depleted.
The high short-term foreign debt accumulated private sector.
Besides reports the latest Indonesian economy is also quite alarming. The business climate in the manufacturing sector in September was reported still depressed by the continued decline in the number of employees, output, and orders. Meanwhile in the same period, core inflation jumped. The data that came out last week, indicating that the domestic industry is still constrained. In this situation, Indonesia's GDP growth in the third quarter remained slow feared.



Fundamental This Week
Earlier this week, the rupiah exchange rate opened at 14.640 per US dollar in the currency market (monitoring TradingView) with a tendency to strengthen. Apparently, the disappointment will be the US employment report is still affecting the market sentiment, but market participants will still monitor the other economic reports to be released this week.

From within the country, the release schedule of the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) is empty, while Bank Indonesia is quite dense schedule. Two of data that deserves to be monitored is foreign reserves that will be published on September 7 and the survey report that retail sales in August will be released on 8.

From the United States, a number of medium-strong impact of data to be published, including the Non-Manufacturing ISM PMI, the trade balance, jobless claims, and the minutes of the FOMC meeting the Fed. Even so, the data is unlikely to have a major impact in turning increasingly pessimistic market sentiment that the Fed rate hike can be done in this year.

Officials of central banks of Australia, Japan, Europe, and the United Kingdom are also scheduled to deliver policies or their views in the coming days. Here it should be noted that there is the possibility of the central bank-other central banks will loosen their stimulus along with the prolonged speculation about interest rate hikes by the Fed. When that happens, the dollar may strengthen back.



Prediction Rupiah This Week
Technically, if it still will continue its bullish pace, then the USD / IDR in the upcoming week has the potential to return to the range 14,700an. On the other hand, there is always an opportunity to strengthen, given two weeks ago rupiah was traded in the range 14,400-14,500an.

USDIDR

Chart USD / IDR on the Daily timeframe with some indicators stochastics and Fibonacci retracement

It may be noted that the current exchange rate floating near fibo 38.2%. This means there are opportunities to move to 14.401, although most likely will bounce back towards 14.784. Prediction neutral from the range of movement of the rupiah exchange rate within the next two weeks is between 14.545 to 14.784 per US dollar. While optimistic predictions move towards 14.401 Rupiah can be achieved if the rate of 38.2% fibo penetrate.



Archive Analysis by: A Muttaqiena
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