Fundamental Data Recap 5-9 October 2015

The low accretion job data Non-Farm Payroll (NFP), the US in September caused an estimated increase in the Fed's benchmark interest rate in a year is difficult to be realized unless the NFP in October and November back above 200,000 jobs. In addition to NFP September, which only increased 142,000 jobs, weakening greenback last week also caused by a downward revision to NFP in August from 173 000 to 136 000, the participation rate in September fell to 62.4% (lowest since 1977) so that the unemployment rate remains low (5.1%), the hourly wage rate is stagnant and the ISM Manufacturing index fell to its lowest level in 28 months. Data and important event for the USD this week is the minutes of the September FOMC meeting, the speech of the members of the FOMC, ISM Non-Manufacturing Index and Jobless Claims.

The US economic slowdown is expected to lead to lax monetary policy of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will hold a meeting this week. BoJ may expand stimulus in October and the RBA may cut its benchmark interest rate which is currently 2.0%. Also Mario Draghi's speech next Wednesday is expected to touch on the possibility of additional stimulus European Central Bank (ECB) after the data were negative Eurozone annual inflation (CPI Eurozone on 30 September).

Data and other important events is the Monetary Policy Summary and the minutes of the BoE meeting, the minutes of the meeting of the ECB, the UK PMI Services index, UK Manufacturing Production, employment Canada, Australia trade, BoJ press conference and speech Mark Carney.

Monday, October 5, 2015:
The first day of the Eurogroup meeting
At 07:30 pm: Data Australia ANZ Job Advertisements month of September 2015
15:30 pm: Eurozone investor confidence index Sentix version in October 2015
15:30 pm: UK Services PMI index in September 2015 Markit version
16:00 pm: Data Retail Sales in August 2015 Euro area
21:00 pm: ISM Non Manufacturing PMI index in September 2015 US

Tuesday, October 6, 2015:
The second day of the Eurogroup meeting
Hours 4:00 pm: New Zealand business confidence index version NZIER third quarter of 2015
At 07:30 pm: Australia's trade balance data in August 2015
10:30 pm: announcement of interest rates the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) in October 2015
13:00 pm: Factory Orders Germany in August 2015
Hours 19:30 am: US trade balance data in August 2015
Hours 19:30 pm: Canadian trade balance data in August 2015
21:00 pm: Ivey PMI index in September 2015 Canada

Wednesday, October 7, 2015:
Time tentative: the price index Global Dairy Trade (GDT) (High-impact on the NZD)
At 00:00 pm: speech the president of the European Central Bank (ECB) Mario Draghi
Hours 04:30 pm: speech FOMC members John Williams
Tentative time: interest rate announcement and Monetary Policy Statement The Bank of Japan (BoJ) in October 2015
Tentative time: BoJ press conference attended by the governor Haruhiko Kuroda
13:00 pm: Data German Industrial Production in August 2015
15:30 pm: Data Manufacturing Production and Industrial Production UK in August 2015
Hours 19:30 pm: Building Permits Data Canada in August 2015

Thursday, October 8, 2015:
13:00 GMT: German trade balance data in August 2015
18:00 pm: interest rate announcement and Monetary Policy Summary The Bank of England (BoE) in October 2015
18:00 pm: BoE meeting minutes dated October 8, 2015
18:30 pm: the minutes of the meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB) dated 3 September 2015
Hours 19:30 am: US Jobless Claims Data per October 3, 2015
Hours 19:30 pm: index of housing prices in Canada in August 2015

Friday, October 9th, 2015:
IMF Meetings
01:00 pm: speech BoE governor Mark Carney
01:00 pm: the minutes of the FOMC meeting on 17-18 September 2015
Hours 02:30 pm: speech FOMC members John Williams
15:30 pm: UK trade balance data in August 2015
Hours 19:30 am: Data Employment Change and the unemployment rate Canada in September 2015
Hours 20:10 pm: speech FOMC member Dennis Lockhart.



Archive Analysis by: Martin