6 to 7 October 2015: RBA Interest Rate, US Trade Draghi Speech

Tuesday, October 6, 2015:
The second day of the Eurogroup meeting

At 07:30 pm: Australia's trade balance data in August 2015 (High Impact on AUD)
Data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics measures the total difference in the value of imports and exports within the time period of one month. If the total value of exports is greater than the total value of imports, the trade balance had a surplus, and vice versa if the total value of imports greater than exports, the trade deficit.

Since April 2014 the Australian trade deficit continued and reached a record high of A $ 4:14 billion in April 2015. In July and returned a deficit of AUD 2:46 billion, higher than expected deficit will be 3:10 billion AUD and is the lowest deficit in 4 months last as exports increased and imports remained relatively unchanged. For the month of August 2015 is expected Australia's trade deficit will shrink back of AUD 2:36 billion. Deficit figure lower than estimates will tend to cause the AUD to strengthen.

10:30 pm: meeting the results of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA): interest rate announcement in October 2015 and the RBA statement (High Impact on AUD)
RBA interest rate is announced every month on the first Tuesday, except in January. In February 2015 for the first time the RBA cut interest rates since August 7, 2013 to + 0.25% of 2.25%, then in May made more cuts of 0.25% to + 2:00%. This reference rate is a record low RBA.

Governor Glenn Stevens stated that further interest rate cuts are still possible, but some analysts estimate for October is the benchmark rate will remain + 2:00% even though the Chinese economy as the main trading partner of Australia is experiencing a slowdown. If the RBA cut its benchmark rate back then the AUD will tend to weaken, and vice versa.
Statement for today's meeting can be downloaded here.

13:00 pm: Factory Orders Germany in August 2015 (Impact medium in EUR)
This indicator released each month and measures the percentage change in the volume of purchases of manufactured products and industrial Germany compared to the previous month. This data is an early indicator for German production output which will affect growth. Last July the German Factory Orders fell 1.4% (or -1.4%), lower than the estimates will be down 0.5% and is the lowest in the last 6 months. For the month of August 2015 is expected to be back in Factory Orders rose 0.5%. Results of the release of higher than expected will tend to support the strengthening of the EUR.

Hours 14:15 pm: Data Consumer Price Index (CPI) in September 2015 Switzerland (medium-high Impact in CHF)
CPI is the main indicator to measure the level of inflation in Switzerland, and because the Swiss economy is not as big countries other major currencies, the data released is the CPI total (including the consumption of food and fuel) and no category of core CPI (Core CPI) like most other countries. Euro area together with its neighbors, is now deflation is sweeping Switzerland. CPI data release in the form of changes compared to the previous month (m / m) and compared to the same month in the previous year (y / y). High-impact annual inflation is data or a total CPI y / y.

Last August the Swiss annual inflation back down 1.4% (or -1.4%), in line with forecasts and the lowest in the last 56 years, while a monthly basis (m / m) total CPI fell 0.2% (or -0.2%), according with estimates and higher than in July were -0.6% (the lowest since 2007). For the month of September 2015 is estimated to total CPI y / y will come back down 1.4% (or -1.4%) while for m / m will rise 0.1%. Results of the release of higher than expected will tend to cause a stronger CHF.

Hours 19:30 am: US trade balance data in August 2015 (medium-high Impact on the USD)
The trade balance is the largest component in the balance of payments which the US government will have a direct impact on the exchange rate USD. A weaker USD as a result of the trade balance deficit is usually compared also with incoming capital (capital inflow) through the US Net Foreign Security Purchases or Treasury International Capital (TIC) Purchases were also released each month.

                   

The US trade deficit in July shrank to a value of USD 41.86 billion, better than expected to be a deficit of USD 43.20 billion and was the lowest deficit since March this year. The shrinking of the deficit figure is due to the exports rose 0.4% while imports fell 1.1%. For the month of August 2015 the US trade deficit is expected to be returned to the figures swelled to USD 42.20 billion. Deficit lower than expected will tend to cause the USD strengthened.

Hours 19:30 pm: Canadian trade balance data in August 2015 (High Impact at CAD)
This data is also called the International Merchandise Trade, and only releasing products that are imported and exported goods, excluding services. Canada is a major exporter of crude oil in addition to gold and automobile parts. Canada's main trading partner is the US which accounted for nearly 70% of total exports and 50% of the total imports of Canada, so the development of the US economy will greatly influence the trading activity in Canada.

Canada last July trade deficit of CAD 0.6 billion, better than expected to be a deficit of CAD 1.4 billion and was the lowest deficit since November 2014. The shrinking of the deficit in July was caused by exports which rose 2.3% while imports rose 1.7%. For the month of August 2015 the trade deficit is expected to shrink Canada will return to the number of CAD 0.3 billion. Deficit figure lower than estimates will tend to cause a stronger CAD.

21:00 pm: Ivey PMI index in September 2015 Canada (Impact medium in CAD)
Indicators are also called the Canada Business Confidence is the same as the Manufacturing PMI index released by Markit, only to Canada were made and released by the Richard Ivey School of Business. This index is based on results of a survey of 175 purchasing managers across Canada about the economic situation and current business until it was shown the future economic outlook. Therefore, these indicators are important to investors and businesses and are often regarded as a leading indicator. Figures released above 50.0 indicates industry expansion, and below the 50.0 figure indicates contraction.

Last August Canada Ivey index stood at 58.0, higher than expected 53.5 and the highest in the last 3 months. For the month of September 2015 the market does not provide estimates, but if the result of the release of higher than the index of the previous month (58.0), then it will tend to favor the strengthening of the CAD.

Wednesday, October 7, 2015:
Time tentative: the price index Global Dairy Trade (GDT) (High-impact on the NZD)
Data released by the Global Dairy Trade shows average prices of dairy products from the last auction. The price index released 2 times a month and usually a high impact on the NZD considering New Zealand is one of the countries producing milk and dairy products the world's major. Milk is the mainstay of New Zealand's exports of products in addition to meat, fruits, wool and wood. To release today the market does not provide an estimate, but if the result is higher than the previous release which rose 16.5% (highest in the last 6 months), the NZD is likely to be strengthened.
Results GDT index release can be found here.

At 00:00 pm: speech the president of the European Central Bank (ECB) Mario Draghi (High Impact in EUR)
Mario Draghi is scheduled to speak about the prospects for the Eurozone economy in Frankfurt, Germany.

Hours 04:30 pm: speech FOMC members John Williams (medium Impact on the USD)
President of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco John Williams is scheduled to talk about the prospects for the US economy at the Urban Land Institute's Fall Meeting, San Francisco.



Archive Analysis by: Martin