5 to 9 October 2015: Dollar Weakens Against Rival

Market Info

A slowing US economy diperediksi will menyebabkanlonggarnya monetary policy of bebeberapa central banks, low-added jobs at a data Non Farm Payroll US on release of data last week caused an estimated increase in the benchmark interest rate the Fed this year difficult, unless the data in October including November are over 200,000 jobs. There are some important data to be released this week. Both of Zone Europe (including the UK) and the United States. This can lead to volatile markets with forecasts "This week, the dollar weakened against its rivals".

1. Analysis GBP / USD

Prediction:

Observation of the GBP / USD at TF Daily,

Area movement of GBP / USD this week is in the area of ​​1.5112 - 1.5242 / 1.5311

In a technical, GBP / USD has the potential to strengthen, with the target of strengthening towards the 1.5242-1.5311 area

2. Analysis EUR / USD

Prediction:

Observation of the EUR / USD at TF Daily,

Area movement of EUR / USD this week is around 1.1126 - 1.1305 / 1.1406

EUR / USD potentially towards 1.1305 as the nearest reinforcement, then towards 1.1406

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Archive Analysis by: Rachmat

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Crop pounds Acquisition Due to Sluggish UK Services Sector

The pound sterling against the US dollar cut placement on Monday (05/10) afternoon after the release of data on the UK service sector activity expanded more slowly compared with expectations last month, harbored optimism over the strength of the state perekonoomian the capital in London.

Economic research institute, Markit, reported the British Services PMI index figure drop to 53.3 in September, from 55.6 in the previous month's figures. Analysts expect the index to rise to a level of 50.6 last month.

The services sector in the United Kingdom accounted for nearly 80 percent of overall economic activity and covers activities such as finance financial services, media financially, financial consultant, to sectors such as education and restaurants. Weak UK services PMI report this time is quite surprising, the article, the core data released earlier showed gains since the beginning of October, among them the construction data and manufacturing the strut to the pound sterling.

David Noble, Chief Executive at the Chartered Institute of Procurement & Supply noting that the weak growth in the services sector today is almost certainly caused by some of the global problems that hamper the sustainability of economic recovery some time past.

There is a good news showing that UK employment sectors showed gains that sigfnikan with a fairly steady level since June despite the companies also reported the impact caused by rising wages.


Sterling Fell
GBP / USD interested retreat from 1.5244 level. the highest level since September 25, to reach 1.5183 during the European session is, or can be quite stable in the past day. While against the Euro, Sterling was lying with EUR / GBP at 0.7418 range.

The US dollar itself was observed to vary in the face of currency-major currencies earlier this week. US Dollar Euro slack face, but strengthened counter-Yen on Monday (05/10) afternoon due to waning expectations US interest rates will rise after the data release of the Non Farm Payroll (NFP) were very disappointing in the US last weekend.

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Fundamental Data Recap 5-9 October 2015

The low accretion job data Non-Farm Payroll (NFP), the US in September caused an estimated increase in the Fed's benchmark interest rate in a year is difficult to be realized unless the NFP in October and November back above 200,000 jobs. In addition to NFP September, which only increased 142,000 jobs, weakening greenback last week also caused by a downward revision to NFP in August from 173 000 to 136 000, the participation rate in September fell to 62.4% (lowest since 1977) so that the unemployment rate remains low (5.1%), the hourly wage rate is stagnant and the ISM Manufacturing index fell to its lowest level in 28 months. Data and important event for the USD this week is the minutes of the September FOMC meeting, the speech of the members of the FOMC, ISM Non-Manufacturing Index and Jobless Claims.

The US economic slowdown is expected to lead to lax monetary policy of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will hold a meeting this week. BoJ may expand stimulus in October and the RBA may cut its benchmark interest rate which is currently 2.0%. Also Mario Draghi's speech next Wednesday is expected to touch on the possibility of additional stimulus European Central Bank (ECB) after the data were negative Eurozone annual inflation (CPI Eurozone on 30 September).

Data and other important events is the Monetary Policy Summary and the minutes of the BoE meeting, the minutes of the meeting of the ECB, the UK PMI Services index, UK Manufacturing Production, employment Canada, Australia trade, BoJ press conference and speech Mark Carney.

Monday, October 5, 2015:
The first day of the Eurogroup meeting
At 07:30 pm: Data Australia ANZ Job Advertisements month of September 2015
15:30 pm: Eurozone investor confidence index Sentix version in October 2015
15:30 pm: UK Services PMI index in September 2015 Markit version
16:00 pm: Data Retail Sales in August 2015 Euro area
21:00 pm: ISM Non Manufacturing PMI index in September 2015 US

Tuesday, October 6, 2015:
The second day of the Eurogroup meeting
Hours 4:00 pm: New Zealand business confidence index version NZIER third quarter of 2015
At 07:30 pm: Australia's trade balance data in August 2015
10:30 pm: announcement of interest rates the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) in October 2015
13:00 pm: Factory Orders Germany in August 2015
Hours 19:30 am: US trade balance data in August 2015
Hours 19:30 pm: Canadian trade balance data in August 2015
21:00 pm: Ivey PMI index in September 2015 Canada

Wednesday, October 7, 2015:
Time tentative: the price index Global Dairy Trade (GDT) (High-impact on the NZD)
At 00:00 pm: speech the president of the European Central Bank (ECB) Mario Draghi
Hours 04:30 pm: speech FOMC members John Williams
Tentative time: interest rate announcement and Monetary Policy Statement The Bank of Japan (BoJ) in October 2015
Tentative time: BoJ press conference attended by the governor Haruhiko Kuroda
13:00 pm: Data German Industrial Production in August 2015
15:30 pm: Data Manufacturing Production and Industrial Production UK in August 2015
Hours 19:30 pm: Building Permits Data Canada in August 2015

Thursday, October 8, 2015:
13:00 GMT: German trade balance data in August 2015
18:00 pm: interest rate announcement and Monetary Policy Summary The Bank of England (BoE) in October 2015
18:00 pm: BoE meeting minutes dated October 8, 2015
18:30 pm: the minutes of the meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB) dated 3 September 2015
Hours 19:30 am: US Jobless Claims Data per October 3, 2015
Hours 19:30 pm: index of housing prices in Canada in August 2015

Friday, October 9th, 2015:
IMF Meetings
01:00 pm: speech BoE governor Mark Carney
01:00 pm: the minutes of the FOMC meeting on 17-18 September 2015
Hours 02:30 pm: speech FOMC members John Williams
15:30 pm: UK trade balance data in August 2015
Hours 19:30 am: Data Employment Change and the unemployment rate Canada in September 2015
Hours 20:10 pm: speech FOMC member Dennis Lockhart.



Archive Analysis by: Martin

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FXCM Attacked by Hackers, is being investigated FBI

Yesterday (1/10), US-based forex brokers, FXCM, surprisingly giving notice to his clients that his firm became victims of the attacks have occurred cybersecurity and access by parties not liable to customer information. In other words: FXCM has been hacked.

According to the official announcement of FXCM, they receive an email from hackers who claim to have gained access to the information of the clients. In addition, FXCM also said that there is "a small number of unauthorized wire transfers from customer accounts". Therefore, FXCM appealed to all clients and recommend them to reset the password.

Not yet known how many accounts were affected by this incident, but FXCM declare all funds have been sent back to the client, and now they are being held internal investigation on the matter. Broker headquartered in New York has also been reported to the FBI and is currently cooperating in the investigation.

Notice of the incident, FinanceMagnates find similarities in the illegal transactions were also attacked banks and other financial companies. The attacks usually started by Trojan, which is used as an intermediary by hackers to gain access to the target client and pull data in their accounts such as names and passwords.

Wall Street Journal highlighted the fact that a hacker attack in the financial industry may occur more often than we know. Thomas Peterffy of Interactive Brokers Inc. told the WSJ that online attacks are irresponsible is a big problem for forex brokers. Interactive Brokers also have experienced a DDoS attack. According to Frederic Ponzo of consultants GreySpark Partners, hacking incidents in the financial industry is not only aimed to gain information about the trader, but also get into the system to make trades using the account information has been taken over hacker.

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GBP / USD Slightly Supported UK Construction PMI data September

The pound sterling strengthened against the US Dollar on Friday (02/10) afternoon today, after data showed that construction activity in the UK recorded the fastest expansion in the range since March, in Septmebr ago. In addition, the market is still looking forward to the results of the US NFP report tonight. GBP / USD touched the 1.5174 level during the European session took place, namely at a high level. The pair subsequently consolidated at 1.5165 figure, 0:22 per cent increase.

Markit Research Institute reported the PMI index for the UK construction sector bolted to a six-month high level, specifically in figure 59.9 in September from 57.3 in August figures. Analysts expect that the index will rise to 57.5 last month figures.

The report contrasts with last month's PMI construction, where construction PMI index published by Markit for July, recorded plunged 57.1 percent from 58.1 in June. The current building construction activity also grew in the most sluggish pace since April, according to Markit, underscoring the emergence of challenges that policy makers face complex issues in dealing with a chronic shortage of sufficient housing in the UK.

The US dollar itself appears strengthened against the euro and yen with the market awaiting the results of the US NFP tonight. EUR / USD slipping 0:19 percent to trade at 1.1174 figure. While USD / JPY rose to the level of 120.05 0:11 percent after official data on Japanese household spending rose 2.9 percent reported in August.

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USD DOWN Slows Post-NFP

After Non-Farm Payroll data release by the US Bureau of Labor slowing growth makes the US dollar fell in nearly every major currency. This month employment growth at the level of 142 k far below the forecast of economists stands at 201 K, while last month's data was revised down to 136 K.

The results are so surprising, then, suggest the Greenback dropped against Euo and pound sterling. At time of writing, the pair EUR / USD has now risen more than 150 pips into 1.1310 penetrate yesterday's highs 1.1208, while for pairing GBP / USD is currently traded at the 1.5230 level away from daily lows 1.5125

Not to achieving the target above 200 K and NFP data last month revised down as an indication that the Federal Reserve should return to rethink the planned increase in interest rates which according to the President's statement the Fed San Franscisco, John William and comments the chairman of the Fed, Janet Yellen imminent this month.

The results were so disappointing NFP is certainly further reinforce the uncertainty that is happening in the market about a Fed interest rate hikes, market participants may be more confused and more cautious ahead of the FOMC meeting this month.

Meanwhile, growth in hourly wages received by the worker the US in September was unchanged or stagnate, down compared with last month's data which rose by 0.4 percent and still below the forecast of economists in figure 0.2 percent.

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Dollar Bulls Regain Upper Hand

The powerful divergence theme re-emerged and effectively ended the dramatic correction throughout the capital markets. The FOMC statement strengthened conviction of a mid-2015 lift off, even if pace of tightening may be somewhat slower than previously anticipated. At the same time, the Swiss National Bank's decision to move to negative interest rates, partly in anticipation of the ECB expanding its asset purchases as early as next month, underscores that Europe remains well behind the US in the credit cycle.

Rather than attribute the down draft in the dollar and equity markets to a shift in underlying fundamental drivers, we had seen the hand of a technical correction, driven by short-term market positioning, and aggravated by year-end portfolio adjustments.Indeed the euro peaked within a few ticks of the 50% retracement objective of its losses from the October 15 high near $1.29. For its part, the dollar's dramatic slide against the yen stopped just shy of a key retracement objective of its rally from both October 15 and October 31, which was found near JPY115.50.

We expect the dollar's higher trend to continue. However, the lack of participation over the next two weeks could obscure this trend. The Dollar Index made a new high before the weekend near 89.65. A move above 90.00, which has held back previous dollar bounces since the onset of the Great Financial Crisis, would signal an acceleration of the dollar 's advance. Initial support is pegged in the 88.80 area.

The euro recorded a new low for the move just before the weekend near $1.2220. A break of $1.2200 would suggest losses toward $1.20. It has not been able to resurface much above $1.2300 since breaking below in response to the SNB's decision.

Technical indicators suggest the dollar's uptrend against the yen will resume. The move above JPY119.50 strengthens the conviction that the greenback is on its way back to the December 8 high near JPY121.85 and beyond. Initial dollar support is seen in the JPY118.50-80 area.

Sterling is not particularly interesting at the moment. It caught between the strength of the dollar and the weakness of other currencies, including the euro, Swiss franc, yen and Australian dollar. Against the greenback it has been confined largely to a $1.56-$1.58 trading range since mid-November. There have been a handful of violations of the two-cent range, but it has largely held. Technical indicators suggest risk remains to the downside. Sterling set a low near $1.5540 on December 17, but the snap back into the range seemed halfhearted. Resistance is seen $15680-$1.5700.

The dollar-bloc currencies are still headed lower. They did not participate in the bounce that the euro and yen enjoyed. Resistance in the Australian dollar is now pegged near $0.8200. Out next important target is near $0.8000, ahead of that are the lows from 2010 around $0.8060-70. The US dollar reached a high of roughly CAD1.1675 on December 15, this was the lower end of the range we have been suggesting the greenback had near-term potential toward. The upper end of that range is near CAD1.1725. Since recording the highs, the US dollar has not been below CAD1.1560.

The dollar peaked against the Mexican peso on December 12 near MXN14.95. Five days later it had slumped to MXN14.37. By the end of the week, the dollar's bull move appears to have had recovered to above MXN14.70 In the days ahead, the dollar may consolidate its gains. It could pullback toward MXN14.50, though over the medium term, it appears the dollar can rested the 2009 high near MXN15.60.

The U.S. 10-Year bounced off of the 2.0% level to near 2.25%, where the rally faded. Economic data out next week are expected to show stronger capex (durable goods orders) and stronger growth momentum (upward revision to Q3 GDP to above 4%). This may limit the pullback in yields.

At the same time, we note that the premium the U.S. pays over Germany widened out to almost 160 bp this week. This is the largest premium since mid-1999. It began the year near 110 bp. The widening was a result of German bund yields falling further than U.S. yields fell.

Although the U.S. 10-Year yield remains relatively low, the 2-Yearyield has firmed and at 65 bp is 1-2 bp below the five-year high set earlier this month. The U.S. premium over German at this tenor is about 73 bp, which represents a new three-year high. These relative interest rate developments are understood to be constructive for the dollar.

The S&P 500 gapped higher December 18 following the strong close the previous day after the FOMC meeting, and seemingly aided by the Swiss National Bank's move to negative interest rates. That gap is 2016.75 to 2018.98. We do not look for this gap to be filled in the near-term. Rather the gap signals the end to the corrective losses and the resumption of the bull advance that will likely carry it to new highs.

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